Rolling the dice on catastrophe
International Herald Tribune
By Michael Lewis
It was Aug. 24, 2005, and New Orleans was still charming. Tropical Depression 12 was spinning from the Bahamas toward Florida, but the chances of an American city’s being destroyed by nature were remote. An entire industry of scientists who calculate the likelihood of various natural disasters had set the odds: A storm that destroys $70 billion worth of insured property should strike the United States only once every 100 years. From Miami to San Francisco, the nation’s priciest real estate faced beaches and straddled fault lines; its most vibrant cities occupied its most hazardous land. And virtually no one fully understood the true odds.













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